Leapfrogging with solar

California's Governor Gavin Newsom was also among those who spoke at the COP30 in Belém. He deplored that fact that Trump was turning the USA into a footnote at the climate conference. Kenyan scholar and climate activist Mohammed Adow has told the BBC that the USA is committing an "act of self-sabotage", as that country will ultimately "miss out on the energy of the future" as a result.

While the USA sees itself in a technology race against China that it is desperate to win in every possible field, the game is already over when it comes to solar technology. Three quarters of all solar panels produced worldwide since 2010 have come from China, and that share has grown substantially over recent years. This has been possible because the Chinese leadership is pursuing the clear goal of decarbonising the country (in the medium term, coal-fired power generation was also expanded in parallel for a long time.). And this with technologies and equipment being produced in their own country.

The success of this strategy is a problem for those who, for ideological reasons, stand in principled opposition to industrial policy in general, not to mention "green" industrial policy in particular. Those circles are very strongly represented in Switzerland, including in business schools and economics faculties, the NZZ and SECO. They readily point to China's current overproduction. But overproduction is relative, when we consider the enormous unmet demand for affordable and reliable power: 800 million people, mainly in Africa, are still without electricity. 

But something is beginning to stir in Africa – described as the "take-off in solar in Africa" by Ember, a non-profit think tank specialising in energy matters. Ember substantiates this with impressive figures, and China of course takes centre stage. The past two years have witnessed almost a tripling of solar panel imports from China (excluding South Africa). This increase was evident all across Africa. In the 12 months to June 2025, 20 countries set a new record for imports of solar modules. 25 countries imported appreciable amounts (more than 100 megawatts). In Sierra Leone, for example, the modules imported in one year can supply 61 per cent of the electricity output (2023).

Across huge swathes of Africa, wireless technologies have made it possible to leapfrog the stage that entailed the building of landline telephone infrastructure in the countries of the Global North. Solar energy holds the same leapfrogging potential. Instead of concentrating the production of vast amounts of energy at one central location, it allows power generation to be decentralised and located close to those who consume the power. The potential of solar energy for Africa's development would be so much greater if only its use did not depend on imports from China. The first green shoots of local solar panel manufacturing are now appearing in Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa.